Can Molina Healthcare Sustain Its Market-Beating Rally?
While bigger industry peers get more attention, large-cap managed-care provider Molina shows better price strength as well as solid earnings and revenue growth.
This story originally appeared on
While much-larger industry peer tends to get attention, large-cap managed-care provider has shown better price strength in recent months.
With a market capitalization of $20.89 billion, Molina is large enough to be tracked by the S&P 500, but it’s dwarfed by UnitedHealth’s market cap of $482.59 billion.
, , and are also larger than Molina. However, California-based Molina is the price performance leader in that industry, advancing at the following rates:
- 1 week: +1.96%
- 1 month: +5.96%
- 3 months: +20.66%
- Year-to-date: +13.05%
You don’t see many stocks right now with consistent gains like that, over rolling time frames.
It’s easy to compare that performance against the broader S&P 500, using an ETF such as the or the as a proxy.
When evaluating a stock, it’s also a good idea to compare it against its broader sector. That can show you whether the stock is a top-performing outlier, or whether there is some strength in its sector or sub-industry.
In Molina’s case, you can compare it to the S&P large-cap healthcare sector using the . That ETF is underperforming Molina by a wide margin, with a year-to-date decline of 9.14%.
As a whole, the managed care industry is doing better than many others. Most of the big players have slightly different business models, with Molina specializing in health insurance through government-administered programs, including Medicare and Medicaid.
In a possible harbinger for other insurers, UnitedHealth topped analysts’ views when it reported earnings on October 14.
Molina broke out of a cup-with-handle base in mid-March and rallied to a high of $350.19 on April 21 before rolling over. That timing is notable, because the S&P 500 made multiple failed rally attempts, and on April 21, an attempt fizzled well below its previous high of 4818, reached in early January.
Molina went on to form a constructive double-bottom pattern, with a low of $249.78 on June 17. That undercut the previous structure low of $263.64 from January, which set the stage for a new run-up. It may seem a bit counterintuitive, but when a stock falls to a level where institutions see the benefit of scooping up shares at a lower valuation, a new rally can begin.
After clearing a buy point above $315.91, Molina began crafting a flat base in late August. Shares rallied to an all-time high of $362.75 on October 14. The stock was trading lower, along with the broader market, on Wednesday. 
With any stock that’s posted market-beating price gains, the question always is: Can the rally be sustained?
Some of the upward price action is dependent on the broader market, as well as the company’s own prospects. show Molina growing revenue at double-digit rates in each of the past eight quarters. Bottom-line growth has been more erratic, but Molina beat analysts’ views for four quarters in a row.
The company reports third-quarter results on October 26, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.25 per share on revenue of $7.69 billion. Both would be year-over-year increases.
Molina certainly has some characteristics of a growth stock, but its price-to-earnings ratio of 24 is not outlandish, and at any rate, growth investors are generally OK with paying up for a stock whose future seems bright.
Wall Street expects Molina to earn $17.71 per share this year, a 31% increase. Next year, analysts see the company earning $20.08 per share, a gain of another 17%. show a consensus rating of “hold” with a price target of $345.20, down slightly from where the stock was trading Wednesday.
While much-larger industry peer tends to get attention, large-cap managed-care provider has shown better price strength in recent months.
With a market capitalization of $20.89 billion, Molina is large enough to be tracked by the S&P 500, but it’s dwarfed by UnitedHealth’s market cap of $482.59 billion.
, , and are also larger than Molina. However, California-based Molina is the price performance leader in that industry, advancing at the following rates: